机械行业2024年度业绩前瞻：成长崛起，周期反转，出口链有望超预期

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the machinery industry [6] Core Views Main Theme 1: Cyclical Reversal - Construction Machinery: Strengthening reversal logic with domestic and overseas resonance [1] - Shipbuilding: Rising prosperity and improving profitability [1] - Industrial Gas: Historical low gas prices, approaching a turning point [1] - Inspection and Testing: Gradual demand improvement, potential upward inflection [1] - Rail Transit Equipment: Steady progress in railway fixed asset investment, sustained prosperity [1] - Photovoltaic Equipment: Bottoming out, expecting an industry inflection [1] - Wind Power Equipment: 2025 as a major year for wind power installation, focusing on offshore wind and overseas markets [1] - Lithium Battery Equipment: Bottoming out, rising external demand, on the verge of new technology breakthroughs [1] - Machine Tools and Cutting Tools: Cyclical recovery, domestic substitution, overseas expansion, and new fields [1] Main Theme 2: Growth Rising - Semiconductor Equipment: Advanced capacity expansion, accelerating domestic production [2] - Humanoid Robots: Rapid development, both domestic and international progress [2] - Low-Altitude Economy: Beginning to take off [2] Main Theme 3: Global Supply - Export Chain: Inventory disturbances resolved, interest rate cuts to drive recovery [3] - Oilfield Services Equipment: Continued prosperity, focusing on offshore and overseas markets [3] Sub-Sector Performance Review and Outlook - Shipbuilding: Profitability gradually recovering, prosperity rising [3] - Construction Machinery: Significant improvement in profitability, top five manufacturers achieving positive profit growth [3] - Export Chain: Performance release expected in Q4 2024, continued prosperity in shipbuilding, industrial gas, and photovoltaic equipment bottoming out [3] Construction Machinery Outlook - Overseas Market: Recovery in Europe and the US, strong long-term demand from Belt and Road countries, with a market space exceeding $30 billion [4] - Domestic Market: New cycle for excavators, expected 12% growth in domestic sales in 2025, market concentration increasing [5] Humanoid Robots - Industry Trends: Transition from formation to expansion phase, with significant acceleration in industrialization [7] - Key Players: Tesla, NVIDIA, and Huawei making significant strides in humanoid robot development [7] - Market Potential: Expected demand of 2.03 million units in the US and China by 2030, with a market space of approximately 318.5 billion yuan [8] Shipbuilding Industry - Prosperity: Rising ship prices due to supply constraints, with potential for significant growth in tanker and bulk carrier orders [9] - Trends: Shift towards high-end, large-scale, and dual-fuel ships, with Chinese shipyards dominating global orders [12] Export Chain - Outlook: Weak global demand but potential recovery, with US resilience, European bottoming, and emerging market growth [13] - Investment Strategy: Focus on industries benefiting from industrial transfer and those with capacity alignment with the US [14] Rail Transit Equipment - Investment Outlook: Continued prosperity, with high-speed rail and urban rail transit driving demand [16] - Key Data: Expected railway fixed asset investment of over 850 billion yuan in 2025, with high-speed rail accounting for 2000 km of new lines [16] Industrial Gas - Outlook: Bottoming out, with potential for recovery in 2025 [18] - Electronic Special Gas: Global semiconductor recovery expected in 2025, with domestic substitution and overseas expansion opportunities [18] Oilfield Services - Outlook: Continued prosperity driven by oil prices and energy security, with focus on offshore and overseas markets [20] - Key Players: Domestic companies like CNOOC and overseas players like Schlumberger dominating the market [22] Wind Power - Outlook: 2025 as a major year for wind power installation, focusing on offshore wind and overseas markets [23] - Key Data: Expected annual new installed capacity of 100 GW from 2024-2026, with offshore wind growing at a CAGR of 41% [25] Photovoltaic Equipment - Outlook: Industry bottoming out, with focus on new technologies and transformation into the semiconductor sector [27] - Investment Recommendations: Focus on companies like Dier Laser and Jingko Solar [28] Lithium Battery Equipment - Outlook: Bottoming out, with potential for value recovery and new technology breakthroughs [29] - Key Trends: Overseas demand growing faster than domestic, with Chinese companies leading in global competitiveness [31] Inspection and Testing - Outlook: Long-term growth potential, with short-term focus on downstream recovery and technological innovation [33] - Investment Recommendations: Focus on comprehensive testing leaders like CTI and SGS [35] Machine Tools and Cutting Tools - Outlook: Short-term recovery in manufacturing, long-term focus on product upgrades, domestic substitution, and overseas expansion [36] - Investment Recommendations: Focus on leading companies like Ouke Yibao and Haitian Precision [39]