社服行业2024年四季报业绩前瞻：总量平稳、结构筑底、创新加速

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the social services industry [5] Core Views - Domestic tourism has shown strong recovery, with Q2/Q3 2024 tourist numbers reaching 100.5%/99.2% of 2019 levels and tourism revenue recovering to 114.4%/103.9% of 2019 levels [2] - Cross-border tourism has rebounded rapidly, with Q3 2024 cross-border trips reaching 95% of 2019 levels, expected to maintain double-digit growth in Q4 [2] - Offline retail is expected to recover in Q4, with CPI entering an upward trend and policy support through increased consumer vouchers [6] - The catering and hotel industry faces demand-side challenges, with hotel supply expansion continuing and RevPAR recovery declining [8] - Local life services show strong growth potential, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption, and Meituan maintaining its core advantage [10][11] - Comprehensive e-commerce experiences moderate recovery in Q4, driven by national subsidies and improved supply-side quality [14] Tourism Sector - Domestic tourism shows diversified and sinking market trends, with county-level tourism growing faster than tier 1-2 cities [2] - Ice and snow tourism enters peak season, with related searches on Tongcheng Travel platform increasing over 3 times QoQ [3] - Traditional scenic spots maintain stable performance, while some high-end consumption-oriented spots face pressure [3] Offline Retail - Offline retail faces pressure from online competition, with physical online retail growing 6.8% YoY compared to 3.5% for overall retail [4] - New offline formats and experience upgrades drive transformation, with successful store renovations leading to increased traffic and sales [6] - Key players like Yonghui Superstores and Chongqing Department Store show signs of improvement through reforms and store adjustments [7] Catering and Hotel Industry - Hotel supply continues to expand, reaching 112% of 2019 levels by November 2024 [8] - Key players like Jinjiang Hotels and BTG Hotels focus on brand optimization and efficiency improvement [9] Local Life Services - Meituan maintains strong growth in food delivery and local services, with rapid expansion in lower-tier cities [12] - Dingdong Maicai shows strong performance, with Q3 2024 GMV growing 28.3% YoY and achieving 8 consecutive quarters of non-GAAP profitability [13] E-commerce Sector - Comprehensive e-commerce experiences moderate recovery in Q4, with national subsidies driving growth in home appliances and other categories [14] - Alibaba shows marginal improvement in FY25Q2, with Taotao GMV growth and stable monetization rates [15] - JD.com exceeds expectations in Q3 2024, with revenue growing 5.1% YoY and non-GAAP net profit increasing 23.9% [16] - Pinduoduo faces challenges in Q3 2024, with revenue and profit below expectations, but continues to optimize its supply side [16]