彭博：中国正面临20世纪60年代以来最长的通货紧缩周期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the Chinese economy, with expectations of continued deflation and a projected GDP deflator index of -0.2% in 2025, marking the longest deflationary period since the 1960s [1][5]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is currently experiencing its longest deflationary cycle since the 1960s, with predictions of negative GDP deflator indices for three consecutive years [1][2]. - Economists emphasize the urgent need for fiscal stimulus to combat deflation, with a gradual implementation expected [3]. - The real estate crisis has significantly impacted household wealth, leading to a consumption decline, despite potential boosts from exports and retail improvements [3][4]. - The GDP growth rate for 2024 is projected at 4.9%, driven by government stimulus, but industrial output may outpace retail recovery due to ongoing demand-supply imbalances [4]. - The report highlights a structural issue where many companies maintain or expand production despite low or negative profitability, which is unlikely to change soon [4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The GDP deflator index is expected to remain negative for the seventh consecutive quarter, matching records from the late 1990s [5]. - Predictions for the GDP deflator index show a gradual recovery, reaching 0.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 [5]. Impact of Deflation - Negative GDP deflator indices and weak nominal GDP growth are anticipated to directly harm corporate profits and fiscal revenues, leading to broader economic damage [6]. - Long-term deflation poses risks to business and consumer behavior, potentially leading to reduced spending and a vicious cycle of economic decline [8]. Sector-Specific Insights - The housing and manufacturing sectors are currently under the most deflationary pressure, while service sectors like hospitality are showing price resilience [10]. - Weak domestic demand is expected to hinder any significant price recovery, even if some weaker industry players exit the market [11].