房地产行业点评报告：2025H1地产板块投资思路梳理

Industry Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [4] Core Views - The real estate sector is expected to see a narrowing decline in key metrics such as sales area, sales value, new construction starts, and completion area in 2025 [1] - Policy implementation, particularly around land and existing housing acquisitions, is expected to drive valuation recovery in the sector [1] - The risk of developer defaults in 2025 is considered manageable, with potential short-term impacts on sector valuation [2] - Seasonal sales peaks and policy support could lead to better-than-expected sales performance, supporting valuation recovery [3] Sector Opportunities - The first half of 2025 is expected to offer investment opportunities driven by policy support and seasonal sales peaks, particularly around the "Little Spring" period [5] - Policy impact is expected to outweigh fundamental factors in driving sector valuation in the first half of 2025 [6] - Companies related to urban village development and acquisitions are recommended for attention [6] - Consumer-focused real estate companies and high-quality developers are also highlighted as potential investment targets [6][8] Key Companies to Watch - Urban village-related companies: Chengjian Development, ChengTou Holding [8] - Consumer + real estate companies: Seazen Holdings, Longfor Group, China Resources Land [8] - High-quality developers: China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, Binjiang Group [8]