2024年12月美国通胀数据点评：核心通胀回落，“鹰派”立场仍难改变

Inflation Data Overview - In December, the CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, up from 0.3% in the previous month[3] - The core CPI (excluding food and energy) showed a year-on-year decrease to 3.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, both better than the expected values of 3.3% and 0.3% respectively[4] - Food inflation year-on-year was 2.5%, with a month-on-month change of 0.3%, while household food inflation was 1.8% year-on-year[4] Energy and Core Services - Energy prices year-on-year narrowed to -0.4% from -3.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 2.6%[4] - Core services inflation slightly decreased to 4.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month rate of 0.3%[6] - The significant rise in utility gas services was noted, with a year-on-year increase from 1.8% to 4.9%[4] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the CPI data release, major U.S. stock indices saw notable gains, with the Nasdaq up 2.45%, S&P 500 up 1.83%, and Dow Jones up 1.65%[4] - Despite positive inflation signals, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance remains unchanged, with a 3.2% probability of a rate cut in January[6] - Continuous monitoring of inflation data is essential, as a trend of lower CPI could influence the Fed's policy stance[6] Risks and Future Projections - The contribution rates to CPI from core services, core goods, food, and energy were +2.69%, -0.10%, +0.34%, and -0.04% respectively[6] - There is a need to remain vigilant regarding the risk of inflation returning, with projections indicating that if CPI remains at 0.4%, year-on-year CPI could reach approximately 4.9% by December 2025[6] - Potential risks include secondary inflation from new policies post-Trump's inauguration and geopolitical uncertainties[6]