2025年宏观策略：曲径通幽处，渐入佳境时

Overseas Macro: US Priority, Soft Landing-Reinflation-Gradual Recession - Core conclusion: The US is expected to achieve a soft landing, with reflation trades potentially resurfacing in Q1 2025, driven more by price increases than demand improvement. The focus is on Trump's policies, inflation, and the pace of rate cuts [3][4] - US Treasury yields are expected to peak, with opportunities arising after a potential reversal. US stock market volatility may increase, with a focus on tech growth and rate cut trades. The dollar is expected to remain strong, awaiting a turning point in US Treasury yields [4] - Gold is recommended for low-level allocation, with attention on the excess returns of Shanghai gold [4] Domestic Macro: Focus on Domestic Demand Expansion and Price Stabilization - Policy logic: The focus is on resolving existing risks (debt resolution, stabilizing real estate, injecting capital into major banks) and then exploring potential growth areas (fiscal growth, real estate reserves, consumption, innovation, and reform) [5] - Macro cycle: Policy, financial, and economic bottoms have already appeared, with inventory and inflation bottoms yet to be confirmed. Key indicators to watch include M1, inventory, and PPI [5] - Potential support: Slight recovery in local infrastructure after debt resolution, stabilization of real estate after reserve measures, consumption recovery after policy implementation, and technological innovation driven by AI+ [5] A股 Market Trend: W-shaped Movement, Valuation-Market-Performance Bottom Consolidation - Review: In 2024, the A股 market experienced a decline followed by a recovery, with a "dumbbell strategy" outperforming. Approximately 4% of individual stocks hit historical highs, while 18% hit historical lows [6] - DDM analysis: Funds are converging again, with incremental focus on ETFs and leveraged funds. Profits show an N-shaped trend, with a slight improvement in net profit for all A股 companies, around 1.4%. Valuation bottoms are being consolidated, with ERP and PE remaining attractive [6] - Market outlook: A W-shaped trend is expected, with initial volatility followed by an upward movement, consolidating valuation, market, and performance bottoms [6] Style and Themes: High Dividend-New Tech-New Consumption Rotation - Market style: Economic recovery and inflation bottoming will favor small-cap growth initially, followed by large-cap value. High-dividend stocks, tech themes, and consumption cycles will take turns leading the market [7] - New SOEs: High-dividend sectors (banks, home appliances, transportation), M&A (utilities, chemicals, power equipment), high buybacks (pharmaceuticals, electronics, power equipment), and undervalued stocks (banks, steel, real estate) [7] - New tech: Focus on AI applications, robotics, autonomous driving, semiconductors, military, and IT localization [7] - New consumption: Media, textiles, food and beverage, and retail [7] - New structure: Anti-internal competition (cement, photovoltaics, automobiles, chemicals, steel), supply-demand optimization (light industry, non-ferrous metals, textiles), and low PB-high ROE sectors (food and beverage, home appliances, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, banks) [7] US Economic Fundamentals: Soft Landing Expected - US economic indicators suggest a soft landing, with only employment and industrial production showing negative growth. Other indicators remain positive [20][24] - Leading indicators such as heavy truck sales, M2 growth, and LEI point to economic recovery [30][33] - The labor market is showing signs of recovery, with M2 growth and heavy truck sales increasing, and LEI continuing to rise [33] Inflation and Fed Policy: Focus on Core Inflation - Core inflation is the main driver of US inflation, with food inflation remaining low and energy inflation contributing negatively. Service and housing inflation are key components of core inflation [42][44] - Energy inflation is expected to remain low in 2025, with oil prices stable and natural gas prices declining initially before rising [47][48] - Food inflation is expected to remain stable, with limited contribution to overall inflation [50][51] - Housing inflation is expected to decline, with rent prices stabilizing in 2025 [55][57] Labor Market: Structural Changes and Potential Stagflation - The US labor market has shifted from a supply shortage to a surplus, with foreign-born workers filling most of the gaps. Low-end service and manufacturing jobs have been quickly filled, while high-end service jobs remain in demand [74][75] - Trump's policies, particularly on immigration, could lead to labor market stagflation, with rising unemployment and wage growth [75][76] - If 1 million immigrants are deported in the first year, wage growth could rise to 4.5-4.6%, pushing inflation to around 3.7% [82][83] Inventory Cycle: Weak Demand and Production - Inventory-to-sales ratios are high across most industries, indicating weak demand or overstocking. Capacity utilization remains low, with weak production and demand leading to a bottoming inventory cycle [94][95] - Weak demand is evident in durable goods orders, with PMI new orders indices showing low demand in 2024 [99][100] - The inventory cycle is expected to remain volatile, with weak demand and low production willingness [102][103] Real Estate Market: Weak Demand and Rising Inventory - US real estate sales are weak, with both new and existing home inventories accumulating. Housing prices have been declining, and investment in real estate has slowed [105][106] - High mortgage rates are suppressing demand, with 30-year mortgage rates remaining high, reducing refinancing and home purchase activity [114][115] - Existing mortgage rates are relatively low, with around 60% of mortgages below 4%, limiting pressure on homeowners [117][118] Household Balance Sheet: Increasing Pressure - Household income is declining, with pressure increasing. The share of essential consumption is rising, indicating growing financial stress on households [122][125] - Debt repayment pressure is rising, with some indicators reaching recession levels. Credit card delinquency rates are approaching 2008 highs [129][130] - High interest rates are increasing the cost of debt repayment, with interest payments as a share of disposable income and savings at high levels [133][134] Corporate Sector: Debt Refinancing Peak Approaching - Corporate debt refinancing is expected to peak in Q1 2025, with companies facing higher interest costs as the safety cushion from low-rate debt issuance diminishes [136][138] - Corporate debt metrics remain healthy, with interest coverage ratios still high. However, refinancing at higher rates could increase costs [139][140] - Bankruptcy rates for both companies and households remain stable, indicating a soft landing for the US economy [145][146] Trump's Policy Impact: Immigration, Tariffs, and Energy - Trump's policies are expected to prioritize immigration and tariffs, with potential impacts on labor markets and inflation. Energy policies will focus on traditional energy production, balancing inflation and employment [150][151] - Tariffs on China and other countries could push inflation higher, with potential impacts on US inflation ranging from 1-2% depending on the extent of tariff increases [64][151] - Energy policies will aim to increase traditional energy production, potentially lowering oil prices and reducing inflation pressure [151]