零跑汽车：喜，单季度净利润首次转正

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (9863.HK) with a target price of HKD 40.6, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HKD 32.20 [3][5][8]. Core Insights - Leap Motor is expected to achieve its first positive net profit in Q4, becoming the second profitable new energy vehicle manufacturer among its peers. The company anticipates a significant increase in sales volume, targeting 500,000 units by 2025, supported by stable domestic subsidy policies [8]. - The report highlights a substantial improvement in gross margin, projecting it to reach around 13% in Q4 2024, driven by increased sales volume and effective cost management [8]. - The financial forecasts for Leap Motor show a revenue increase from RMB 12.4 billion in 2022 to RMB 69.2 billion by 2026, with a projected revenue growth rate of 295% in 2022 and 37% in 2026 [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Leap Motor are as follows: - 2022: RMB 12,385 million - 2023: RMB 16,747 million - 2024E: RMB 30,771 million - 2025E: RMB 50,581 million - 2026E: RMB 69,234 million - The expected gross margin is projected to improve from (15.4%) in 2022 to 15.9% in 2026, with net losses decreasing significantly over the forecast period [4][9]. - The report estimates that Leap Motor will achieve a net profit of RMB 2.85 billion by 2026, transitioning from a net loss of RMB 5.1 billion in 2022 [4][10]. Valuation - The valuation method used is the sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.0x for both automotive sales and services, leading to a target price of HKD 40.6 [11]. - The current price-to-sales ratio for Leap Motor is noted to be 0.7x, suggesting potential for upward revaluation as profitability improves [8][11].