美国CPI点评（2024.12）：美核心CPI：回落原因是暂时的，薪资推升是强化的

Inflation Data - In December 2024, the U.S. CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, while the core CPI was 3.2%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from November[1] - The overall CPI increased by 0.39% month-on-month, primarily driven by a significant rise in energy prices, which surged by 2.63%[1] - Core CPI's month-on-month growth rate cooled down, with rent and durable goods prices showing temporary declines, while components closely related to wages remained elevated[1] Wage Impact and Future Projections - The relationship between wages and core inflation is strengthening, with non-rent core services and core non-durable goods rising by 0.28% and 0.37% respectively[1] - The labor market is tightening, and Trump's policies may lead to increased domestic consumption and higher prices for durable goods, potentially reversing core inflation trends upward in Q2 2025[1] - If Trump's policies are implemented quickly, the core CPI could stabilize around 3.2%-3.3% in the second half of 2025, limiting the Fed's ability to cut rates[1] Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the release of the December employment and inflation data, the dollar index was slightly adjusted upwards, with predictions for mid-2025 and year-end dollar index targets raised to 106 and 112 respectively[1] - The People's Bank of China may consider a rate cut of 50-100 basis points before the Spring Festival to manage liquidity and stabilize the currency amid increased depreciation pressures[1] Risks - Risks include the possibility of the Fed's rate cuts being smaller than expected and increased depreciation pressure on the RMB[1]