银行：理财监管持续规范，中小银行如何配置？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - Regulatory efforts have intensified since 2017, leading to a more standardized, transparent, and sustainable development model for bank wealth management [4][14] - The market for bank wealth management subsidiaries is expanding, with 32 licenses issued, including 27 for commercial banks and 5 for joint ventures [4][23] - The wealth management business of small and medium-sized banks is facing challenges, with a significant decline in scale and a shift towards agency sales [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Regulation of Wealth Management - Regulatory measures have been progressively strengthened to ensure the healthy development of the wealth management market [14] - The introduction of the "Asset Management New Regulations" in July 2017 marked a new phase, emphasizing the breaking of rigid payment guarantees and requiring that product returns be linked to market risks [14][15] - Subsequent regulations have further detailed the management of wealth management businesses, promoting market-oriented transformations [15][16] 2. Transformation of Wealth Management in Small and Medium-sized Banks - The scale of wealth management for banks without subsidiaries has been decreasing, from CNY 11.8 trillion at the end of 2021 to CNY 4.2 trillion in the first half of 2024 [4][21] - A trend of "exit" from the wealth management market is evident, with many small banks transitioning to agency sales models [4][6] - The number of small banks participating in agency sales has surged from 97 to 511 from 2021 to mid-2024, indicating a significant shift in strategy [4][5] 3. Asset Allocation of Non-Subsidiary Wealth Management - In the first half of 2024, fixed income assets accounted for the largest share of primary assets at 49.23%, up from 40.02% in 2023 [4] - Bonds dominated secondary assets, with a share of 47.27% in the first half of 2024, recovering from 42.12% in 2023 [4] - Corporate bonds saw a significant increase in share, rising to 31.48% in Q1 2024, surpassing financial bonds [4] 4. Challenges and Future Paths for Small and Medium-sized Banks - Small and medium-sized banks face a dilemma of either obtaining wealth management subsidiary licenses or transitioning to agency sales [4][6] - The market for agency sales is substantial, with wealth management companies actively exploring these channels [4][5] - The ongoing economic recovery and potential valuation recovery in bank stocks present investment opportunities [6] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the banking sector due to its high dividend characteristics and the potential for valuation recovery amid economic recovery [6] - The banking sector is viewed as a defensive play, with policies expected to improve economic outlooks and gradually mitigate risks in real estate and local government financing [6]