轻工2024年业绩前瞻：把握以旧换新与悦己消费两条主线

Industry Rating - The industry rating for the light manufacturing sector is Positive (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights two main investment themes for the light manufacturing sector in 2024: replacement demand and self-indulgence consumption [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of home furnishing subsidies and their impact on sales, with 2024 home renovation subsidies driving sales of nearly 60 million products, totaling approximately 120 billion RMB [2] - The report also discusses the paper industry, noting a bottoming out of pulp prices in Q4 2024 and a potential rebound in Q1 2025, which could support paper prices [2] - In the essential consumer goods sector, the report points out that despite overall weak consumption, companies with strong product logic and high-margin products are expected to perform well [2] - The packaging sector is expected to benefit from 3C subsidies and supply chain integration, with companies like Yuto Packaging Technology showing positive growth in Q4 2024 [2] - The export sector is expected to see strong performance in Q4 2024 due to favorable exchange rates, with significant contributions from categories like functional sofas, thermos cups, outdoor products, and pet supplies [2][3] - The pet industry is highlighted for its robust domestic growth, with Q4 2024 online sales reaching 8.3 billion RMB, a 10% YoY increase, and strong performance from leading companies like Guabi Pet and Zhongchong [5] - The toy industry is noted for its strong domestic demand and potential for overseas expansion, with companies like Pop Mart and Blue Zoo expected to benefit from the growing trend of adult toy consumption [5] Sector-Specific Summaries Home Furnishing - Soft furniture companies like Kuka Home, Sleemon, and DeRUCCI are expected to achieve positive revenue growth in Q4 2024 due to shorter delivery cycles [2] - Custom furniture companies such as Oppein, Sophia, and ZBOM are expected to face revenue pressure in Q4 2024 but may see a turnaround in Q1 2025 [2] Paper Industry - Pulp prices bottomed out in Q4 2024, with a potential rebound in Q1 2025 due to supply-side maintenance shutdowns [2] - Companies like Xianhe Co, Huawang Technology, and Sun Paper are recommended for their strong profitability and management advantages [2] Essential Consumer Goods - Despite weak overall consumption, companies like Baiya and Dencare Oral are expected to achieve strong growth through high-margin products and online sales channels [2] Packaging - Yuto Packaging Technology is expected to maintain positive growth in Q4 2024, driven by 3C subsidies [2] - Plastic packaging companies like Yongxin are expected to see improved profitability due to lower crude oil prices [2] - Metal packaging companies like ORG Packaging are expected to stabilize profits due to improved industry structure and stable raw material prices [2] Export Sector - Functional sofas, thermos cups, outdoor products, and pet supplies are expected to show strong performance in Q4 2024, driven by favorable exchange rates and holiday demand [2][3] Pet Industry - Domestic sales in the pet industry grew by 10% YoY in Q4 2024, with leading companies like Guabi Pet and Zhongchong showing strong growth [5] Toy Industry - The domestic toy industry is experiencing strong demand, with companies like Pop Mart and Blue Zoo expected to benefit from overseas expansion opportunities [5] Key Company Performance - Oppein: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 52.85 billion RMB, down 15% YoY, but with a potential turnaround in Q1 2025 [6] - Kuka Home: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 53.81 billion RMB, up 6% YoY [6] - Yuto Packaging Technology: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 48.14 billion RMB, up 9% YoY [6] - Sun Paper: Expected Q4 2024 revenue of 100 billion RMB, down 3% YoY, but with a potential rebound in Q1 2025 [6] - Pop Mart: Expected to benefit from strong domestic demand and overseas expansion opportunities [5]