国信证券：晨会纪要-20250117

Macro and Strategy - The upstream resource industry is experiencing an upward trend, while the midstream manufacturing sector shows mixed performance, with improvements in oil, petrochemicals, and steel, but declines in machinery, construction materials, and decoration [7] - The downstream consumer sector is also showing divergence, with the service industry improving while light manufacturing and retail are declining; essential consumption sectors like pharmaceuticals are seeing growth, while textiles and food and beverage are down [7] - Supportive service and financial sectors are on the rise, with improvements in environmental and transportation services, as well as banking and non-bank financial sectors [7] Non-Metallic Building Materials Industry - The non-metallic building materials sector is currently at a low valuation, with potential for recovery driven by positive fiscal policies and major engineering projects [9][10] - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, including a significant increase in the fiscal deficit ratio and a large-scale debt replacement program totaling 12 trillion yuan [9] - Cement prices are declining due to reduced demand, with average prices for high-grade cement at 410.8 yuan/ton, down 0.6% month-on-month but up 10% year-on-year [8] - Investment opportunities are recommended in leading companies with strong growth potential and flexible valuations, such as three trees, rabbit baby, and others in the building materials sector [9] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry sector is facing challenges due to a declining birth rate, which is expected to impact the toy market in the long term; however, short-term effects are limited [11][12] - The company "Blukoo," a leading player in the building block toy market, is exploring ways to diversify its IP portfolio to reduce reliance on a single IP, which currently accounts for a significant portion of its revenue [13] LCD Industry - The LCD panel industry is experiencing a slight recovery, with TV panel prices expected to rise due to continued demand driven by trade-in policies [16][17] - The average gross margin for major LCD manufacturers has decreased, but the overall market is stabilizing, with a projected increase in demand for large-size LCD panels [19][20] - Investment recommendations include leading domestic panel manufacturers like BOE Technology Group, which is expected to benefit from the domestic consumption upgrade [20] Electric Equipment and New Energy - The demand for data center power is expected to surge, with significant investments announced by major tech companies, indicating a robust growth outlook for the sector [22] - The wind power sector is entering a favorable cycle, with anticipated growth in both onshore and offshore installations in 2025 [23] - The automotive sector is expected to see rapid growth in new energy vehicle sales, supported by government policies promoting vehicle trade-ins [24] Banking Sector - The banking sector's investment returns are primarily driven by retained earnings, dividend income, and valuation changes, with a focus on high-dividend and high-growth banks for 2025 [25][27] - The outlook for 2025 suggests a stabilization of net interest margins and a potential recovery in bank earnings, particularly for large banks [27] Food and Beverage Industry - The white liquor sector is expected to see improved sales during the Spring Festival, although overall demand remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions [28] - Investment recommendations focus on leading brands with strong performance and high dividend yields, such as Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [28] Transportation Industry - The logistics and transportation sectors are showing signs of recovery, with increased demand expected during the Spring Festival travel period [31] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in leading logistics companies and airlines, with a focus on those with strong operational performance and recovery potential [34]