万联证券：万联晨会-20250117

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.82%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,188.68 billion yuan [1][5]. - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as media, banking, and social services led the gains, while composite, defense, and non-ferrous metals sectors faced declines. Concept stocks related to Xiaohongshu, Kuaishou, and short drama games saw upward movement, whereas stocks like Tonghuashun Guo Index, Sci-Tech Innovation New Shares, and PVDF concepts faced downward pressure [1][5]. Important News - The Ministry of Commerce and four other departments issued a notification regarding the implementation of a subsidy plan for purchasing new digital products, including mobile phones, tablets, and smartwatches. Consumers can receive a subsidy of 15% off the final sale price, capped at 500 yuan per item, for products priced under 6,000 yuan [2][6]. - The State Council published regulations to standardize the services provided by intermediary institutions for companies issuing stocks publicly, effective from February 15. The regulations aim to enhance supervision over intermediary fees and prevent improper profit ties between intermediaries and issuers, promoting a healthy capital market [2][6]. Financial Data Insights - In December, the social financing stock growth rate was 8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The new social financing amounted to 2.86 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase. The total social financing stock reached 408.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8% [8]. - The net financing scale of government bonds in December reached 1.76 trillion yuan, achieving a year-on-year increase despite a high base from special refinancing bond issuance at the end of 2023. For the entire year of 2024, the new social financing is projected to be 32.26 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.32 trillion yuan year-on-year [8][9]. - The monetary growth rate continued to recover in December, with the M2 money supply growing by 7.3% year-on-year, and M1 showing a year-on-year growth of -1.4% [8][9]. Media Industry Analysis - The film box office is expected to decline in 2024, primarily due to a decrease in audience numbers. The total box office is projected to drop by 22.6% to 42.5 billion yuan, significantly lower than in 2023. The number of moviegoers is expected to fall to 1.009 billion, with an average ticket price remaining stable at 42.1 yuan [11][12]. - Domestic films are underperforming, with box office revenue expected to reach only 32.46 billion yuan, a 29.1% decline year-on-year. In contrast, imported films are performing well, with a box office of 9.94 billion yuan, a 9.7% increase [11][12]. - The number of new cinemas is projected to increase by 19.9% in 2024, with a total of 1,026 new cinemas and 6,103 new screens. Wanda Cinemas continues to lead the market with a box office of 7.439 billion yuan, accounting for 17.51% of the total [12][13]. Investment Recommendations - The strong performance during the New Year and Spring Festival periods is expected to create a positive start for the film market in 2024. Factors such as improved production efficiency, renewed audience enthusiasm, and economic recovery are anticipated to bolster the market [13][14]. - Attention is recommended for high-quality film production companies and leading cinema chains, as demand for viewing remains robust despite the anticipated market challenges [14].