东吴证券：晨会纪要-20250117

Macro Strategy - A-share trading volume decreased compared to the previous day, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0 25% to 3160 76 points, down 5 70% from the end of 2024, while the ChiNext Index rose 0 36% to 1982 46 points, down 7 43% from the end of 2024 The CSI 300, representing large-cap stocks, fell 0 27% to 3722 51 points, down 5 40% from the end of 2024, and the CSI 500 rose 0 23% to 5381 70 points, down 6 01% from the end of 2024 [1][6] - Sector-wise, non-ferrous metals rose 1 81%, beauty and personal care rose 1 19%, and real estate rose 1 12%, while home appliances fell 2 45%, banking fell 1 16%, and textiles and apparel fell 0 72% The market turnover was 9762 08 billion yuan, down 1867 49 billion yuan from the previous day, with northbound capital turnover at 1567 33 billion yuan and southbound capital net buying at 65 72 billion yuan [1][6] - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to insufficient incremental funds and rapid decline in margin balance, with long-term upward potential supported by policy shifts and accelerated implementation [1][6] Fixed Income and Quantitative Analysis - Yushui Convertible Bond is expected to debut at a price range of 115 03127 91 yuan, with a winning rate of 0 0083% [2][7] - The bond has a total issuance scale of 19 00 billion yuan, with a net fundraising amount used for acquiring Kunming Diantou wastewater treatment assets and expanding the Xindegan Water Plant project The bond has a credit rating of AAA/AAA and a YTM of 1 85% [7][8] Company and Industry Analysis - AMEC (688012) is expected to achieve revenue of 9 07 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44 7%, with etching equipment sales of 7 28 billion yuan, up 54 71%, and MOCVD equipment sales of 380 million yuan, down 18 1% The company's net profit is expected to be 1 501 70 billion yuan, down 16 04 8% year-on-year, mainly due to increased R&D investment and a high base in 2023 [4][9] - AMEC's Q4 2024 revenue is expected to be 3 56 billion yuan, up 73 0% year-on-year, with net profit of 590790 million yuan, down 6 2% to up 25 7% year-on-year The company's CCP equipment has achieved comprehensive coverage in logic and storage fields, with 3800 reaction chambers delivered by Q3 2024 [4][9] - AMEC plans to establish a subsidiary in Chengdu with an investment of 3 05 billion yuan from 2025 to 2030, focusing on the R&D and production of CVD and ALD equipment, with expected annual sales of 1 billion yuan by 2030 [10]