四川双马：医药科技+PE双核心，驱动业绩高增

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 22.27 RMB based on a valuation of 170 billion RMB for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from a single cement business to a primary focus on private equity, resulting in significant improvements in net profit and ROE. The net profit increased from 0.85 billion RMB in 2016 to 9.85 billion RMB in 2023, while ROE rose from 3.16% in 2016 to 14.10% in 2023 [1][26]. - The private equity investment business has become the main profit driver, with profits rising from 3.61 billion RMB in 2018 to 8.52 billion RMB in 2023, accounting for 86% of net profit [1][29]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has shifted its strategic focus from traditional building materials to private equity investment, aiming to create a dual core business model of biotechnology and fund management [1][17]. - The company plans to acquire Shenzhen Jianyuan, a leader in the polypeptide field, which is expected to enhance its profitability [2][17]. Private Equity Business - The company has a robust private equity business model, generating income from management fees, performance-based fees, and investment income. The management fee income has remained stable at around 30% over the past three years, with a significant increase in 2024H1 [2][36]. - The company manages three private equity funds with a total scale of nearly 280 billion RMB, showcasing strong fundraising capabilities [2][36]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has seen fluctuations due to market conditions, with a projected revenue of 1.006 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 17.5% year-on-year. However, net profit is expected to rebound significantly in 2025 and 2026 [5][3]. - The private equity business's contribution to overall revenue has increased, with its share rising from 3% in 2017 to 46% in 2024H1 [29]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 3.52 billion RMB, 6.51 billion RMB, and 9.54 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a recovery trajectory after a decline in 2024 [3][5].