Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that medium-sized airlines are increasing capacity deployment while the three major airlines maintain a cautious approach [1][4] - Domestic routes remain in a low season with a slight increase in capacity deployment, while international routes are entering a peak season with improved performance from medium-sized airlines [2][3] Summary by Sections Domestic Routes - In December, the overall capacity deployment of listed airlines increased by 1.9% compared to November, reaching 117.0% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [2][14] - Major airlines are cautious about the insufficient demand in the fourth quarter, leading to a conservative capacity deployment strategy, while medium-sized airlines like Hainan Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines increased their capacity by 8.1%, 7.2%, and 6.1% respectively [2][16] - The overall passenger load factor for listed airlines decreased by approximately 1.3 percentage points in December, indicating weak demand [2][24] International Routes - The international route capacity deployment in December was about 95% of the same period in 2019, with an increase of approximately 11.5% compared to November [3][37] - The passenger load factor remained stable compared to November, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [3][39] - Medium-sized airlines showed significant performance improvements, with Juneyao Airlines and Spring Airlines increasing capacity by 32.2% and 19.8% respectively, along with notable increases in passenger load factors [3][41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the recovery of North American routes to alleviate the excess capacity in domestic routes, while also monitoring the upcoming Spring Festival travel season [4][5] - Despite ongoing operational pressures, the fundamentals of the civil aviation industry are gradually improving, with expected profit performance this year significantly better than last year [4][5]
航空机场12月数据点评:中型航司加大运力投放,三大航维持克制
Dongxing Securities·2025-01-17 00:56