房地产：2024年度土地市场复盘

Industry Investment Rating - The real estate industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the broader market [7] Core Views - The land market in China has transitioned from centralized land supply in 2021 to a more market-oriented approach by 2024, with policies aimed at stabilizing land prices and controlling market overheating [2][3] - In 2024, the land market experienced a bottoming out in supply and demand, with third-tier cities showing signs of recovery [4] - The average land transaction price in 2024 remained stable, with significant divergence in price growth across different city tiers [5] - Third-tier cities have seen a more pronounced supply clearance and are leading the recovery in the current market cycle [6] Policy Review - From 2021 to 2024, China's land market shifted from centralized land supply to a market-oriented approach, with policies such as "two concentrations" and price caps introduced to control market overheating [3][15] - Starting from September 2023, local governments implemented measures to revitalize the land auction market, including removing price caps and lowering participation thresholds [20][21] Supply and Demand - In 2024, the supply of residential land in 100 major cities decreased by 26.8% YoY, with third-tier cities showing marginal growth in supply [25][26] - Land transaction volume in 2024 decreased by 17.6% YoY, with third-tier cities leading the recovery [33][37] - Third-tier cities saw a 6.3% YoY increase in land supply and a 12.6% YoY increase in land transactions, indicating a faster recovery compared to first and second-tier cities [26][37] Price Trends - The average land transaction price in 2024 was 5,369 RMB/m², a 9.5% YoY decrease, but remained stable compared to 2022 [42][43] - First-tier cities saw a 45.6% YoY increase in land transaction prices, while second and third-tier cities experienced slight declines [43][44] - The premium rate for land transactions in 2024 was 4.1%, with first-tier cities showing a marginal increase in premium rates [48][51] Regional Analysis - In 2024, land supply and transaction volumes in third-tier cities showed signs of recovery, particularly in smaller cities within the Northwest and South China regions [26][37] - The Northwest region saw a 63.7% YoY increase in land supply and a 79.6% YoY increase in land transactions, indicating strong recovery momentum [26][37] Summary - The land market in 2024 continued to show weak supply and demand, with third-tier cities leading the recovery [56] - The average land transaction price and premium rate remained stable, with first-tier cities showing stronger price growth [56] - The recovery of the land market is expected to precede sales recovery, with land market improvements being a prerequisite for overall market recovery [57]