美国12月CPI数据点评：再通胀风险取决于财政货币政策节奏

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - The US December CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, matching expectations, while the year-on-year rate was 2.9%, also in line with forecasts[4] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year it was 3.2%, slightly lower than the anticipated 3.3%[4] Group 2: Inflation Drivers and Trends - Energy prices contributed significantly to inflation, rising by 2.6% and accounting for over 40% of the overall inflation increase[6] - Seasonal inflation is expected to rise healthily, potentially continuing into January, influenced by year-end oil price dynamics[6] Group 3: Policy Implications - The risk of re-inflation is closely tied to the pace of fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, with tariffs and tax cuts potentially pushing inflation higher[6] - The implementation of tax cuts from the Trump administration may not impact inflation until late 2025, indicating a lag in policy effects[7] Group 4: Market Outlook - The US 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain capped between 4.75% and 5%, with potential peaks in January and February due to market sentiment[10] - The S&P 500 is currently viewed as being in a bubble, exceeding long-term trends by approximately 30%[10]