2024年12月金融数据点评：财政发力主导社融修复，市场主体融资意愿仍需改善

Financing Overview - In December 2024, the incremental social financing (社融) reached 2.85 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 2.11 trillion yuan and up from 2.33 trillion yuan in the previous month[2][9]. - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.0%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the credit stock growth rate was 7.6%, down 0.1 percentage points[2][9]. Loan Structure - New RMB loans (社融口径) in December amounted to 840.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 269 billion yuan year-on-year[2][9]. - Government bond financing increased significantly by 1.76 trillion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a notable improvement and contributing to the overall financing growth[2][9]. Corporate Financing - In December, corporate sector new RMB loans totaled 490 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.016 trillion yuan, indicating a contraction in overall corporate financing demand[3][15]. - The structure of corporate loans showed a significant reliance on bill financing, with 4.5 trillion yuan in new bill financing, while short-term loans shrank by 20 billion yuan[3][15]. Household Financing - New RMB loans to households reached 350 billion yuan in December, an increase of 127.9 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by improvements in medium- to long-term loans[3][14]. - The recovery in household credit is linked to a rebound in real estate transactions, particularly in the second-hand housing market[3][14]. Monetary Supply - M2 growth rate was 7.3% in December, slightly up from 7.1% in the previous month, while M1 growth improved significantly from -3.7% to -1.4%[5][17]. - The improvement in M1 is attributed to fiscal spending driving deposits from government accounts to corporate current accounts, alongside increased deposits from real estate companies due to improved sales[5][17]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued government bond financing support in 2025, driven by special bonds and refinancing bonds, which are expected to be the main support for social financing[2][10]. - The expectation for M1 improvement in 2025 is strong, with reduced volatility anticipated due to the introduction of revised statistical methods for M1 reporting[5][17].