美国经济日评：12月份CPI前瞻

CPI Forecast - Core CPI is expected to rise 0.25% MoM in December, with a YoY increase of 3.27%[1][2] - Headline CPI is projected to increase 0.40% MoM, driven by food prices rising 0.35% and energy prices surging 2.3%[1][2] - Core services CPI (excluding rent and OER) is forecasted to rise 0.21%, while core PCE is expected to increase 0.18%[1][2] Key CPI Components - Used car prices are expected to rise 1.0% MoM, reflecting auction price increases[1][3] - Airline fares are projected to increase 1.0% MoM due to seasonal factors[1][7] - Auto insurance prices are forecasted to accelerate slightly, rising 0.3% MoM[1][10] Future Inflation Outlook - Core CPI and core PCE are expected to reach 2.7% and 2.4% YoY, respectively, by December 2025[1][15] - Downward pressure on inflation is anticipated from rebalancing in auto, rent, and labor markets, offset by tariff increases[1][15] Housing and Other CPI Trends - Owners' equivalent rent is expected to rise 0.30% MoM, while rent of primary residence is forecasted to increase 0.25%[13] - Communication prices are expected to stabilize after a 1.0% decline in November[13]