Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Buluke (0325 HK) [2] Core Views - Buluke is a leader in the buildable character toy segment with a rich IP matrix and rapid iteration capabilities, positioning it for platform-based growth [2] - The company's revenue in H1 2024 reached RMB 10 46 billion, up 237 6% YoY, with adjusted net profit of RMB 2 92 billion and an adjusted net profit margin of 27 9% [2] - Buildable character toys have become the primary growth driver, contributing RMB 10 23 billion in H1 2024, up 323 8% YoY, while traditional building block toys declined 66 3% [2] - The IP matrix is diversifying, with licensed IP Ultraman contributing RMB 6 01 billion in H1 2024 (down to 57 4% of total revenue), while Transformers and the proprietary IP Hero Infinite grew significantly [2] Industry Overview - The global toy market reached RMB 7731 billion in 2023, up 7 4% YoY, with China's market size at RMB 1049 billion, up 9 4% YoY [3] - The global buildable character toy market grew 24 1% YoY in 2023 to RMB 278 billion, with China's market surging 93 3% YoY to RMB 58 billion [3] - The global buildable character toy market is highly concentrated, with the top two players (Bandai and Lego) holding 75 4% market share, while Buluke ranks third globally with 6 3% share and first in China with 30 3% share [3] Company Strengths - Buluke has a robust IP operation system, with 50 licensed IPs and 10 successfully commercialized IPs as of H1 2024, up from just 9 licensed IPs at the end of 2021 [4] - The company has an efficient product development cycle of 6-7 months from concept to mass production, significantly faster than the industry average of 10-12 months [4] - Buluke plans to launch approximately 400 and 800 SKUs in 2024 and 2025 respectively, with 431 SKUs available as of H1 2024 [4] - The company has expanded into lower-tier markets with products like the Transformers Star Edition priced at RMB 9 9 [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20 29 billion in 2024 to RMB 53 09 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 47 3% [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5 87 billion in 2024 to RMB 16 42 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 52 3% [5] - The PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 33 5X in 2024 to 12 0X in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [5] Market Differentiation - The report highlights that market concerns about Buluke's reliance on a single IP (Ultraman) are overblown, as the company has successfully diversified its IP portfolio and reduced Ultraman's revenue contribution [10] - Buluke's strong market position and growth trajectory create a win-win relationship with IP licensors, reducing renewal risks [10] - The company's IP commercialization capabilities, supply chain management, and product design expertise provide a competitive edge [10]
首次覆盖报告:布鲁可:拼搭角色类玩具龙头,IP矩阵丰富、快速迭代,平台化成长可期
Xinda Securities·2025-01-17 01:50