中国房地产：2025年一季度展望：二手房市场仍将表现最好；关注更多刺激措施

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to specific developers including China Overseas Development (688.HK), China Resources Land (1109.HK), Greentown China (3900.HK), and Longfor Group (960.HK) [2] Core Insights - The real estate market in China is expected to see a positive growth in the second-hand housing market in Q1 2025, despite a seasonal slowdown typically observed during this period [1][9] - The report highlights that the sales area for new homes, land sales, and construction starts are likely to continue their year-on-year decline, while the second-hand market is projected to outperform new home sales [9][21] - The anticipated policy measures aimed at stimulating the market include urban renewal projects and financial support for housing completion, which are expected to bolster market confidence [5][7] Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Performance - Real estate sales area exceeded expectations in Q4 2024, with a notable recovery in average housing prices in first-tier and some second-tier cities [1][21] - Shenzhen recorded the highest month-on-month price increase since November 2024 [1] Q1 2025 Outlook - The report forecasts a year-on-year increase in sales area and overall second-hand housing market performance across 75 cities, while the first-hand housing market is expected to decline [1][9] - March 2025 is identified as a critical month for monitoring developers' liquidity, coinciding with significant bond repayment pressures [1][42] Policy Measures - New policies introduced by the government focus on urban renewal and ensuring housing delivery, with plans to expand urban village redevelopment from 35 to over 300 cities [5][7] - Anticipated monetary easing measures, including a potential 50 basis point reduction in reserve requirements, may lead to lower mortgage rates [5][7] Developer Performance - The report indicates that the stock prices of covered developers are currently at the lower end of their expected range, influenced by the stabilization of housing prices and the potential for further policy support [2][4] - Contract sales for developers are projected to decline by a single-digit percentage year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting a seasonal slowdown and reduced available inventory [15][17]