中国人形机器人：因长期可预见性增强而延展目标价基础至2030年；买入三花/贝斯特；上调绿的谐波/鸣志至中性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sanhua and Best Precision, while upgrading the rating for Greentec Harmonics and Moons' Electric from "Sell" to "Neutral" [2][16] Core Insights - The report extends the valuation benchmark year to 2030 due to increased long-term visibility in the humanoid robotics industry, resulting in target price increases of 34% to 82% for four humanoid robotics component stocks [1][17] - The report highlights several upcoming catalysts, including Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings release and the potential launch of Optimus Gen3, as well as Nvidia's GTC conference and the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in China [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The humanoid robotics industry is expected to benefit from a long-term structural trend, with significant growth potential becoming clearer [1][17] - Tesla has ambitious shipment targets for its Optimus robot, aiming for thousands of units in 2025, increasing to 50,000-100,000 units by 2027 [3][11] Company Performance - Sanhua, Best Precision, Greentec Harmonics, and Moons' Electric are projected to achieve humanoid robotics business revenues of RMB 29.187 billion, RMB 1.769 billion, RMB 3.010 billion, and RMB 3.002 billion respectively by 2027, representing significant portions of their total revenues [6][11] - Greentec Harmonics is expected to maintain a revenue and net profit CAGR of 31% and 44% respectively from 2024 to 2030, driven by new customer penetration and improved operational leverage [16] Valuation Analysis - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, indicating substantial upside potential for stocks in the humanoid robotics supply chain, with implied valuations suggesting significant increases based on various shipment scenarios [11][13] - The target price for Sanhua is set at RMB 35.2, Best Precision at RMB 29.7, LeaderDrive at RMB 111.3, and Moons' Electric at RMB 49.4, reflecting the extended valuation horizon [11][17]