锂电行业2025年投资策略：全球变局渐行渐近，供给侧曙光乍现

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The global demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed expectations due to the increase in domestic penetration rates and the overseas new model cycle. In China, NEV sales from January to November 2024 reached 10.12 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. The forecast for 2024 includes 10.48 million passenger vehicles and 643,000 commercial vehicles sold in China, representing year-on-year growth of 33.6% and 42.6%, respectively [17][19] - The demand for power batteries is anticipated to grow at a rate higher than that of vehicle sales, with global power battery demand projected to reach 1,004 GWh in 2024, 1,316 GWh in 2025, and 1,737 GWh in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 31% [20][19] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In China, the "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost passenger vehicle demand, with a potential consumption scale of 1.3 trillion CNY from replacing old vehicles. The policy is anticipated to stimulate demand for new energy commercial vehicles as well [20][24] - The overseas market is expected to grow, with an overall forecast of over 5.4 million units sold in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The growth is driven by different policy environments and model cycles across regions [17][19] Energy Storage - The rapid development of new energy sources is creating opportunities in energy storage, with global energy storage capacity expected to reach 187 GWh in 2024, 269 GWh in 2025, and 365 GWh in 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 74%, 44%, and 36%, respectively [6][19] Supply Chain - The financial framework indicates that leading companies in the battery and lithium iron phosphate sectors are beginning to see improvements in return on equity (ROE). The capital expenditure has remained low since Q4 2022, but is expected to stabilize post-Q3 2024 [6][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of re-evaluating balance sheets and recommends focusing on battery and lithium iron phosphate materials, while also paying attention to leading companies in electrolyte, anode materials, copper foil, and separators [6][19]