GWMOTOR(601633) 开源证券·2025-01-17 03:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motor (601633 SH) [1] Core Views - Great Wall Motor is expected to achieve significant year-on-year growth in 2024 with net profit projected to increase by 76 6%-85 1% reaching 12 4-13 billion yuan [4] - The company's performance in Q4 2024 is expected to show a slight decline due to intense industry competition and increased promotional expenses for new models [4] - The Tank and Wey brands along with overseas business are expected to continue driving growth with the Tank brand achieving sales of 61 000 units in Q4 2024 a year-on-year increase of 5 5% [5] - The Wey brand particularly the Blue Mountain model saw a significant sales boost after the introduction of the NOA function with Q4 sales reaching 22 000 units a year-on-year increase of 158 7% [5] - The company's overseas business achieved sales of 129 000 units in Q4 2024 a year-on-year increase of 23 6% [5] - The Hi4-Z technology introduced in the Tank 500 Hi4-Z model is expected to enhance fuel efficiency and performance contributing to the brand's expansion in the off-road market [6] - The company plans to continue launching new models and expanding its intelligent driving solutions across various brands including Tank and Wey [6] Financial Summary and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 137 34 billion yuan in 2022 to 263 74 billion yuan in 2026 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14 4% [7] - Net profit is projected to increase from 8 27 billion yuan in 2022 to 18 1 billion yuan in 2026 with a CAGR of 15 9% [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 19 4% in 2022 to 21 3% in 2026 [7] - The net margin is projected to increase from 6 0% in 2022 to 6 9% in 2026 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 12 7% in 2022 to 16 5% in 2026 [7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 26 2 in 2022 to 11 9 in 2026 indicating a more attractive valuation [7] Market Performance - The current stock price is 25 27 yuan with a one-year high and low of 33 34 yuan and 19 11 yuan respectively [1] - The total market capitalization is 216 21 billion yuan with a circulating market capitalization of 156 5 billion yuan [1] - The turnover rate over the past three months is 28 22% [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its focus on high-margin models and expand its overseas business with a strong emphasis on localization and ecosystem development [6] - The Tank brand and overseas business are expected to be key drivers of growth in 2025 [6] - The company's intelligent driving solutions are expected to be widely adopted across various models contributing to future growth [6]