航空运输：12月客座率高位维稳，看好油汇压力释放后的利润弹性

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation transportation industry, reiterating its previous rating of "看好" (Positive) [2] Core Views - The aviation industry has seen a recovery in passenger load factors, with domestic and international routes showing significant improvements [2][9] - Ticket prices remain low, with domestic fares declining more than international fares, indicating potential for future price elasticity [3][20] - Fuel costs have decreased, providing relief to airlines, while currency exchange rates have remained relatively stable [3][26] - International route recovery has reached over 80%, with domestic routes showing steady growth [4][32] - Aircraft fleet expansion has slowed, with major airlines like Air China and China Southern maintaining large fleets, while China Eastern added the most aircraft in 2024 [4][46] Industry Supply and Demand - Passenger load factors in Q4 2024 exceeded 2019 levels, with November 2024 showing an 83.2% load factor, 1.7 percentage points higher than 2019 [9] - ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) in November 2024 increased by 5.7% and 7.9% respectively compared to 2019, with year-to-date growth of 10.4% for both metrics [9] - Domestic routes have fully recovered, while international and regional routes have reached over 80% of pre-pandemic levels, with November 2024 recovery rates exceeding 90% [16] Ticket Prices - Average ticket prices in December 2024 were 696 RMB, a 4.0% month-on-month increase but an 8.9% year-on-year decline [20] - Domestic ticket prices fell by 10.1% year-on-year to 657 RMB, while international and regional ticket prices dropped by 7.5% to 1,621 RMB [20] - Q4 2024 average ticket prices declined by 9.8% year-on-year, indicating continued price pressure [20] Fuel and Currency Trends - Jet fuel prices in 2024 averaged 6,251 RMB per ton, a 7% year-on-year decrease, with Q4 2024 prices down 24.4% year-on-year [26] - Brent crude oil prices rose to 82.03 USD per barrel by January 15, 2025, a 9.9% increase from the end of 2024 [26] - Currency exchange rates remained stable, with the USD to RMB rate at 7.1881 on January 15, 2025, showing minimal change from the end of 2024 [26] Airline Operations and Fleet Expansion - Domestic route RPK grew by approximately 10% in 2024, while international routes recovered to around 80% of pre-pandemic levels [32] - China Eastern added the most aircraft in 2024, with a net increase of 22 planes, while Air China added 25 planes, the highest among major carriers [46] - Fleet expansion slowed, with major airlines like Air China, China Southern, and China Eastern falling short of their initial fleet growth targets [46] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines due to their potential for profit elasticity as ticket prices recover and fuel costs remain low [6][50] - The slowdown in fleet expansion and recovery in passenger load factors are expected to support airline profitability in the coming years [50]