SF Holding(002352) -·2025-01-17 02:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 51.48 for the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The management expects overall revenue growth in 2025 to be in the high single digits to low double digits, with net profit margin improving by 20-30 basis points compared to 2024 [1]. - The improvement in profit margins is attributed to enhanced profitability from new business, cost reduction initiatives including multi-network integration, and the release of operational leverage [1]. - The company anticipates a gradual increase in the dividend payout ratio, which was 40% last year, expected to rise steadily by 2028 [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of RMB 258.409 billion in 2023, with projections of RMB 283.659 billion for 2024 and RMB 315.882 billion for 2025 [7]. - The EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 3.8% in 2023 to 5.0% in 2024 [7]. Market Position and Competition - The company holds over 50% market share in the return logistics business on platforms like Douyin, with daily returns averaging 5 million items, representing 12-13% of total volume [3]. - The management believes that the recent integration of JD Logistics into the Taobao platform will have a limited impact on the company, as Taobao buyers can now choose to use SF Express for deliveries [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a projected stock price increase of 26.8% and a dividend yield of 2.3%, leading to an expected total return of 29.1% [8]. - The company’s market capitalization is reported at RMB 202 billion (approximately USD 27.6 billion) [5].