HISENSE H.A.(000921) -·2025-01-17 02:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances with a target price of RMB 42.00, implying a potential upside of 32.3% from the current price of RMB 31.75 [4][5][9]. Core Insights - The outlook for 2025 is positive, driven by domestic growth supported by government subsidies for replacing old appliances, which is expected to accelerate compared to 2024. The management anticipates double-digit growth in exports, although at a slower pace than in 2024 [1][2]. - The central air conditioning (CAC) segment is projected to achieve positive sales growth, contrary to market expectations of a decline due to macroeconomic uncertainties. The management believes that product upgrades and supply chain optimizations will enhance gross margins [1][2]. - The company is expected to be a major beneficiary of the domestic subsidy program for replacing old appliances, which will positively impact demand and product structure upgrades [1][2]. Summary by Sections Export Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the export prospects for 2025, particularly for split air conditioners, driven by demand from emerging markets. The impact of U.S. tariffs is minimal, as they account for less than 5% of the company's revenue, and the company can adjust its production capacity flexibly [3]. Central Air Conditioning (CAC) Sales - The management forecasts mid-single-digit growth for CAC sales in 2025, with the consumer channel (2C) expected to see high single-digit growth due to subsidies. However, this may be offset by declines in the decorated housing channel, which accounted for 17% of total HVAC sales in Q424 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 85.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 102.87 billion in 2025, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 2.837 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.879 billion in 2025 [7]. - The report indicates a steady improvement in profitability metrics, with the EBITDA margin expected to rise from 4.6% in 2023 to 5.1% in 2025 [7].