-瑞银证券-恒立液压-2025瑞银大中华研讨会

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 56.00, indicating an expected return exceeding market expectations by more than 6% [4][5]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a single-digit revenue growth in 2025, with the excavator segment expected to achieve double-digit growth, while the non-excavator segment may face significant pressure [1][2]. - The company is establishing new production capacity in Indonesia, expected to commence operations by March 2025, primarily to supply hydraulic cylinders for excavators to Chinese OEMs [1]. - The company is considering setting up a factory in Europe, with a specific location to be determined in 2025 [1]. - The Mexican factory for pumps and valves has commenced production, with plans for hydraulic cylinders to start production in Q1 2025, contingent on U.S. tariff decisions [1]. Summary by Sections Excavator Segment - The company is optimistic about the excavator segment, projecting double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by increased overseas orders and improved market share in excavator pumps and valves, which currently stands at 50%-60% domestically [2]. Non-Excavator Segment - The non-excavator segment is expected to face revenue pressure due to declines in high-altitude and shield machines. However, revenue from agricultural machinery, marine engineering, and industrial non-excavator products may increase, partially offsetting the declines [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company show an increase from RMB 9.509 billion in 2024E to RMB 10.956 billion in 2025E, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 2.598 billion in 2024E to RMB 2.991 billion in 2025E [7].