皖能电力：安徽火电龙头，机组投产放量可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Waneng Power (000543) with a 6-month target price of 10.30 CNY, compared to the current price of 7.09 CNY [1] Core Views - Waneng Power is a leading thermal power company in Anhui province, with significant capacity expansion expected [1] - The company benefits from tight power supply-demand dynamics in Anhui, supporting electricity prices [7] - Coal price declines are improving thermal power costs, with Qinhuangdao thermal coal prices expected to remain around 760 CNY/ton [7] - The company is expanding its installed capacity, with 2.32 GW of new capacity expected to be operational by end-2024 [7] - Power sector reforms are enhancing the profitability stability of thermal power, with ancillary services contributing to diversified income [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 27.87 billion CNY in 2023 to 33.06 billion CNY in 2025, with a CAGR of 10.85% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 1.43 billion CNY in 2023 to 2.33 billion CNY in 2025, with a CAGR of 18.48% [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.63 CNY in 2023 to 1.03 CNY in 2025 [2] - ROE is expected to improve from 8.58% in 2023 to 12.39% in 2025 [2] Industry and Market Dynamics - Anhui's power demand is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 8.7% from 2020-2023, driven by economic growth and industrial development [7] - Thermal power remains the dominant power source in Anhui, accounting for 90.4% of total power generation in H1 2024 [43] - The company's thermal power utilization hours are expected to remain high, at 5,000 hours in 2024, gradually declining to 4,800 hours by 2026 [8] - Coal prices are expected to remain low, with the company's comprehensive coal cost projected at 980 CNY/ton in 2024, declining to 860 CNY/ton by 2026 [8] Capacity Expansion and New Projects - The company is expanding its thermal power capacity, with 1.175 GW of operational capacity and 1.32 GW under construction as of H1 2024 [23] - New projects include the Xinjiang Yingema Power Plant (1.32 GW) and Qianyingzi Power Plant Phase II (1 GW), both expected to be operational by end-2024 [7] - The company is also investing in renewable energy, with plans to add 4 GW of new energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [95] Valuation and Target Price - The report values Waneng Power at 10x 2025 PE, implying a target price of 10.30 CNY [11] - The company's 2025 PE of 6.9x is below the industry average of 9.4x, indicating potential undervaluation [116] - The target price is based on the company's capacity expansion, low coal prices, and thermal power premium [11]