中国中免：业绩持续承压，等待需求企稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (601888 SH) [3] Core Views - The company's performance continues to face pressure due to slowing consumer demand and industry cycles [5] - Revenue is significantly impacted by fluctuations in luxury consumption demand among domestic high-end consumers [5] - The decline in revenue is mainly driven by weak consumption demand in the Hainan offshore duty-free market, partially offset by recovery in domestic airport channel sales [5] - The company is actively expanding its city duty-free store projects and accelerating overseas business expansion [5] - Despite short-term challenges, the company remains a leader in the domestic duty-free industry with a clear competitive advantage [5] Financial Performance - 2024 revenue is expected to be 56492 16 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16 36% [2] - 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 4262 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36 50% [2] - 2024 EPS is projected at 2 06 yuan, with a PE ratio of 29 90 [2] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts are 42 6 billion, 51 3 billion, and 67 2 billion yuan respectively [5] - 2024-2026 PE ratios are expected to be 30X, 25X, and 19X respectively [5] Business Operations - The company has won bids for city duty-free store projects in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xi'an, and Fuzhou, totaling 9 city duty-free stores [5] - Overseas expansion includes new stores at Singapore Changi Airport, Hong Kong International Airport, Tokyo Ginza, and Sri Lanka [5] - Beijing and Shanghai airport duty-free store revenues increased by 115% and 32% respectively in 2024 [5] - The company's market share in Hainan increased by 2 percentage points, outperforming the overall industry decline [5] Financial Ratios - 2024 gross margin is expected to be 31 00%, slightly lower than 2023's 31 82% [2] - 2024 net profit margin is forecasted at 7 55%, down from 2023's 9 94% [7] - 2024 ROE is projected at 7 80%, compared to 2023's 12 47% [7] - 2024 asset-liability ratio is expected to be 22 72%, lower than 2023's 24 96% [7] - 2024 current ratio is forecasted at 4 40, an improvement from 2023's 3 81 [7]