全球煤炭展望：精读IEA报告《COAL 2024》-供给见顶回落，需求达峰尚早

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry [2]. Core Insights - The global coal demand is expected to reach a historical high of 877 million tons in 2024, with a slight increase to 887.3 million tons by 2027, driven primarily by China, India, and ASEAN countries [5][14]. - Global coal supply is projected to peak at 906.8 million tons in 2024 and decline to 898.4 million tons by 2027, with a CAGR of -0.3% from 2024 to 2027 [5]. - China remains a key variable in global coal demand, with its consumption expected to rise to 500.5 million tons by 2027, primarily driven by thermal power [5][31]. - India's coal demand is anticipated to grow significantly, with a projected increase of 2.6% annually, reaching 142.1 million tons by 2027 [5][31]. - The coal industry is experiencing accelerated mergers and acquisitions due to regulatory and financial constraints, with a preference for metallurgical coal projects over new mining investments [5][7]. Summary by Sections Demand: Total Demand Not Yet Peaked - Global coal demand reached 868.7 million tons in 2023, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from China and India [14]. - In 2024, global coal demand is expected to grow by 1% to 877.1 million tons, with Asian demand offsetting declines in developed countries [15]. - By 2027, coal demand is projected to fluctuate slightly, with China remaining the primary driver despite the growth in renewable energy [15][35]. Supply: Expected Peak in 2024 - Global coal production reached a record high in 2023, with a forecasted peak in 2024 [5]. - China's coal supply is expected to stabilize by 2027, with limited growth due to regulatory constraints [5][31]. - India is set to increase its coal production significantly, with a projected rise of 17 million tons by 2027 [5][31]. Trade: Declining Imports from China and India - The international coal trade is expected to reach a historical high in 2024, but imports from China and India are projected to decline [5][7]. - The trade volume for thermal coal is expected to increase by 1.8% to 117.8 million tons in 2024, but will decrease by 2027 due to reduced import reliance [5][7]. Prices & Costs: Profit Margins Under Pressure - Coal prices are declining but remain above pre-crisis levels, with production costs decreasing at a slower rate than prices [5][7]. - The profitability of coal trade is under pressure, with a notable decline in profit margins [5][7]. Investment and Emission Reduction - New export-oriented mining projects are being scaled back, with a shift towards more attractive metallurgical coal projects [5][7]. - The industry is facing significant investment constraints due to political and regulatory factors, leading to a focus on mergers and acquisitions [5][7].