12月金融数据点评：财政发力拉动社融增速，居民信贷持续改善

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - The social financing scale increased by 2.86 trillion yuan in December, up from 2.33 trillion yuan in the previous month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of 7.8%[8][9] - The total amount of new loans in December was 990 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion yuan, indicating a low level compared to the same period in the past five years[21] - Government bond financing was the largest contributor to the increase in social financing, with an increase of 1.76 trillion yuan, up 828.8 billion yuan year-on-year[14] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - M1 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month's drop of 3.7%, indicating potential improvement in the liquidity of the real economy[34] - M2 showed a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3%, which is an improvement from the previous month's 7.1%[8] - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates remains negative at -8.7%, but the decline has narrowed, suggesting that the activation of monetary supply still needs improvement[34] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose to support domestic demand and consumption, with potential further reductions in interest rates[3][41] - There are risks associated with the recovery of the economic fundamentals not meeting expectations and macro policies exceeding expectations[4][42] - The increase in fiscal deposits decreased by 16.725 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a significant drop of 7.504 trillion yuan, reflecting an active fiscal policy aimed at stimulating the economy[38]