宏观深度报告：什么样的生育政策是有效的？

International Comparisons of Fertility Policies - Russia's "Maternity Capital" program, with subsidies roughly equal to per capita GDP (1:1 ratio), led to a rebound in fertility rates after 2007[3] - Central and Eastern Europe and Nordic countries implemented strong fertility policies, with total expenditures exceeding 2% of GDP and cash support over 1%, stabilizing fertility rates between 1995-2010 and 1980-1990 respectively[3] - Japan and South Korea adopted gradual policy enhancements with low cash support ratios (initially below 0.5% of GDP), resulting in missed opportunities for significant fertility rate recovery[3] Effective Fertility Policies - Hubei Tianmen's birth population increased by 17% in 2024, with subsidies for third-child families reaching up to 225,000 RMB, including housing incentives and monthly childcare allowances[3] - Effective fertility policies require substantial financial support, with total expenditures ideally reaching 2% of GDP (2.7 trillion RMB for 2024) and cash support at least 1% (1.35 trillion RMB)[3] - Central policies should prioritize supporting first marriages and births, as local policies focusing on second and third children may not sustain long-term population stability[3] Global Trends and Policy Adoption - The number of countries adopting policies to increase fertility rates rose from 14% in 1996 to 29.7% in 2015, with Europe and Asia leading the trend[8] - Maternity leave is the most widely adopted fertility policy globally (95.3% of countries), while one-time baby bonuses (26.2%) and tax credits for dependents (29%) are less common[10] - Nordic countries' fertility policies, combining cash and service support, achieved fertility rate stabilization between 1980-2010, outperforming Japan and South Korea's gradual approaches[24]