Economic Growth - The actual GDP growth for Q4 2024 rose significantly to 5.4%, driven primarily by net exports and consumption subsidies[7] - The GDP growth for the entire year of 2024 was 5.0%, achieving the annual growth target[7] Retail and Consumption - In December 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, while retail sales above designated size rose by 4.2%, marking a recovery from November[8] - Consumption subsidies in the home appliance sector showed a significant effect, with sales increasing by 17.1% year-on-year, reaching a growth rate of 39.3%[8] Fixed Investment - Fixed asset investment in December 2024 fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2%, with real estate development investment declining by 1.8 percentage points to -13.3%[12] - Broad infrastructure investment rebounded by 3.6 percentage points to 10.8%, indicating a recovery from previous lows, although structural differentiation was noted[12] Real Estate Market - The sales area of residential properties in December 2024 slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4%, indicating a peak in demand release has passed[17] - New housing starts fell by 5.0 percentage points to -21.9%, reflecting developers' cautious outlook on the real estate market[17] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added in December 2024 rose by 0.8 percentage points to 6.2%, with manufacturing value-added increasing significantly by 1.4 percentage points to 7.4%[21] - The mining and public utility sectors saw declines in value-added due to slow investment growth and warmer winter temperatures[21] Future Outlook - The economic growth target for 2025 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.0%, with fiscal deficit rates maintained at 3.6% to 4.0%[24] - The monetary policy is expected to focus on liquidity injection through reserve requirement ratio cuts and potential interest rate reductions in the first half of 2025[24]
经济数据点评（24Q4/12月）暨双循环周报（第91期）：24Q4经济增长回升，净出口和补贴刺激消费或为两大动能
华金证券·2025-01-17 10:32