台积电（TSM）：AI需求强劲，将持续推动2025年及长期增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC (2330.TT) with a target price of 1,401.1 TWD, representing a potential upside of 27% [1][13]. - For TSMC's ADR (TSM.US), the target price is set at 256.3 USD, indicating a potential upside of 24% [1][13]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing AI demand, which is projected to drive growth in 2025 and beyond [6][9]. - The company has raised its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, reflecting strong anticipated revenue growth driven by AI-related income [1][6]. - TSMC's AI-related revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% over the next five years, contributing to an overall revenue CAGR of 20% [6][9]. Financial Projections - TSMC's revenue is projected to reach 3,713,586 million TWD in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28% [2][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 58.3% in 2025, with net profit projected at 1,555,461 million TWD, reflecting a 33% increase from the previous year [2][11]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 60.0 TWD in 2025, up from 45.2 TWD in 2024 [2][11]. Performance Review and Guidance - TSMC's Q4 2024 revenue was 868,461 million TWD, a 39% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for 3nm and 5nm technology nodes [9][10]. - The company provided guidance for Q1 2025, expecting revenue to grow by 41% year-on-year, despite a seasonal decline due to smartphone demand [9][10]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 59.0%, exceeding previous guidance, and the operating margin was 49% [9][10]. Valuation - The report employs an EV/EBITDA valuation method, assigning TSMC a target EV/EBITDA of 14x under the base case scenario, leading to the target price of 1,401.1 TWD [13][14]. - For the ADR, the valuation considers a 20% premium over the local stock price, resulting in a target price of 256.3 USD [13][14].