美国12月CPI点评：通胀符合预期，美国再通胀担忧稍减

Group 1: CPI Overview - December US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, while core CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year, also in line with forecasts[3] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.4%, consistent with expectations, and core CPI increased by 0.2%, also meeting forecasts[3] - The market's concerns over rising inflation have eased, leading to a shift in the anticipated first interest rate cut from July to June 2025[3][6] Group 2: Energy and Core CPI Insights - December energy CPI decreased by 0.5% year-on-year but increased by 2.6% month-on-month, with gasoline prices rising by 4.4%[4] - Core CPI unexpectedly slowed to 3.2% due to a decline in used car prices, with a month-on-month increase of 1.2%[5] - Housing CPI decreased to 4.6% year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth rate remained stable at 0.3%[5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the CPI data release, US stocks rebounded, and bond yields fell, boosting confidence in potential interest rate cuts[6] - Current CME data indicates a 25 basis point rate cut is now expected in June, compared to previous expectations of July[6] - Future risks include potential unexpected inflation performance and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy[7]