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保险Ⅱ行业点评报告：健全保险机构监管评级分类监管，预计利好经营稳健的头部公司
东吴证券·2025-01-17 12:54

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Views - The new regulatory rating system for insurance companies is expected to benefit well-managed leading companies [1] - The classification-based regulatory approach will strengthen risk prevention and promote rational and compliant operations in the insurance industry [4] - Both liability and asset sides are showing improvements, with low valuations and low fund holdings making the sector both offensive and defensive [4] Regulatory Framework - The regulatory rating system applies to all types of insurance institutions, including insurance groups, property insurers, life insurers, and reinsurers [4] - The rating framework uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, with corporate governance and solvency carrying the highest weights (≥15%) [4] - The rating results are divided into 6 levels (1-5 and S), with a "one-vote veto" mechanism for companies with excessive single risks [4] - Regulatory measures vary based on rating levels, with more stringent controls for lower-rated companies [4] Market Outlook - Strong savings demand is expected to continue, with pressure on interest rate spreads gradually easing [4] - The recent rise in 10-year government bond yields to around 1.66% may alleviate pressure on new fixed-income investment returns [4] - The insurance sector's valuation remains low, with 2025E P/EV ranging from 0.49x to 0.77x [4] Company Valuations - China Life Insurance (601318) has a 2025E P/EV of 0.77x and P/E of 9.53x [6] - Ping An Insurance (601318) has a 2025E P/EV of 0.56x and P/E of 8.70x [6] - China Pacific Insurance (601601) has a 2025E P/EV of 0.49x and P/E of 5.94x [6] - New China Life Insurance (601336) has a 2025E P/EV of 0.52x and P/E of 5.48x [6] Industry Performance - The insurance sector has shown significant growth, with a 61% increase from January 2024 to January 2025 [3] - The sector outperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period [3]