电解铝春季策略：成本下行开启，铝价上行可期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum industry chain, consisting of bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, is experiencing a shift in profit distribution, with electrolytic aluminum profits being eroded by rising alumina prices [5][47] - The average profit for the aluminum industry chain has decreased from 3860.78 CNY/ton to 3083.26 CNY/ton recently, with electrolytic aluminum showing a negative profit of -1611.8 CNY/ton [12][17] - The report anticipates a potential increase in electrolytic aluminum prices and profits due to domestic economic support measures, projecting a price increase to at least 22065.5 CNY/ton by 2025 [5][50] Summary by Sections 1. Definition of the Aluminum Industry Chain - The main flow path of aluminum elements is from bauxite to alumina to electrolytic aluminum, with specific consumption rates for each raw material in the production process [11][5] 2. Typical Profit Distribution in the Industry Chain - The typical profit distribution is as follows: electrolytic aluminum > bauxite > alumina, with average profits of 2283.51 CNY/ton for electrolytic aluminum, 325.09 CNY/ton for alumina, and 1252.18 CNY/ton for bauxite [17][12] 3. Redistribution of Existing Profits and Concentration of Incremental Profits in Electrolytic Aluminum - The report indicates that existing profits in the aluminum industry are being redistributed, with electrolytic aluminum profits being increasingly affected by rising alumina prices [47] - It is projected that the profit for electrolytic aluminum could increase by approximately 2400 CNY/ton due to anticipated demand growth in 2025 [50][55] - The report highlights that the profit from alumina will gradually transition towards electrolytic aluminum as production capacity expands [58] 4. Market Performance and Future Outlook - The report notes that the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, currently at 4510 million tons, and anticipates a stable demand growth in 2025 [40][39] - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is decreasing, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance, which may further support price increases [53][55]