传媒行业24Q4业绩前瞻：24Q4业绩预期稳定，25年看AI产业趋势

Industry Rating - The media industry is rated as "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The media industry's performance in 24Q4 is expected to remain stable, with a focus on AI industry trends in 2025, driven by companies like ByteDance, Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Xiaohongshu [1] - The gaming sector is expected to maintain stable growth in Q4 2024, with new product cycles emerging in 2025 [1] - The film industry is expected to recover in 2025 after a decline in 2024 due to insufficient content supply [2] - The publishing sector benefits from the extension of income tax exemption until 2027, which is expected to positively impact publishing companies [3] - The advertising market is expected to remain stable, with AI-driven marketing companies like Yidian Tianxia showing potential for double-digit growth [4] Gaming Sector - Century Huatong's "Endless Winter" has maintained a high ranking since its launch in May, while Perfect World's "Zhu Xian World" saw over 140,000 players queuing on its launch day [1] - New games like "Time Big Bang" by 37 Interactive Entertainment and "Ask Sword Longevity" by G-bits are performing well in the free rankings [1] - Several major IP games, including "Douluo Continent: Soul Hunting World" and "Dragon Nest World," are expected to launch in the first half of 2025 [1] - Companies like ST Huatong, Giant Network, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and Glacier Network are expected to see significant profit growth in Q4 2024 due to base effects [1] Film Sector - The national box office revenue in 2024 was 42.5 billion yuan, a 23% decrease year-on-year and 34% lower than 2019, falling short of market expectations [2] - The box office revenue is expected to recover to over 50 billion yuan in 2025, a 17% increase year-on-year [2] - Leading film companies like Light Chaser Animation, Wanda Film, and Bona Film Group are expected to benefit from the Spring Festival season and a recovery in 2025 [2] - Mango Excellent Media's performance in IPTV remains under pressure, despite the success of shows like "Goodbye Lover" and "Alley Family" [2] - Companies like Shanghai Film and Huace Film & TV are expected to perform well in Q4 due to low base effects and AI+IP catalysts [2] Publishing Sector - The extension of income tax exemption for publishing companies until 2027 is expected to benefit the sector, with actual tax rates for state-owned publishing companies ranging from 20% to 30% in 2024 [3] - The new "National Nine Articles" policy emphasizes cash dividends, which could lead to increased dividends from education publishing companies, although overall performance may remain under pressure in Q4 and the full year [3] Advertising Sector - The advertising market is expected to remain stable, with Focus Media expected to see a profit growth of 6% to 10% in Q4 2024 [4] - AI-driven marketing companies like Yidian Tianxia are expected to achieve double-digit growth [4] Investment Recommendations - The media industry in 2025 is expected to focus on AI-driven trends, with companies like ByteDance, Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Xiaohongshu leading the way [5] - Key investment opportunities include gaming companies like Giant Network, ST Huatong, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, as well as AI-related companies like Kunlun Tech and Perfect World [5] - Hong Kong-listed companies like Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group, and Meituan are also recommended for investment [5]