东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250118

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic airlines are experiencing a seasonal downturn in demand, with a 1.9% increase in capacity compared to November, reaching 117.0% of the same period in 2019, and a slight year-on-year increase of 1.4% [3][4] - Major airlines are adopting a cautious capacity strategy due to insufficient demand in the fourth quarter, while medium-sized airlines like Hainan Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines are increasing capacity by 8.1%, 7.2%, and 6.1% respectively, likely in anticipation of the Spring Festival travel rush [3][4] - The overall passenger load factor for listed airlines decreased by approximately 1.3 percentage points in December, indicating weak domestic demand despite increased capacity [3] Group 2: International Routes Performance - The international routes are entering a peak season, with capacity for listed airlines in December reaching about 95% of the same period in 2019, and a month-on-month increase of approximately 11.5% [4] - The passenger load factor for international routes remained stable compared to November, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [4] - Medium-sized airlines showed strong performance in December, with capacity increases of 32.2% and 19.8% for Juneyao Airlines and Spring Airlines respectively, alongside significant improvements in passenger load factors [4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the oversupply situation in domestic routes persists, and recovery in international routes is crucial for the industry [5][7] - Despite ongoing operational pressures, the aviation industry is gradually improving, with expectations for profit performance this year to significantly exceed last year's results [7] - The report recommends focusing on the recovery of North American routes and the upcoming Spring Festival travel season, indicating that major airlines' stock prices have reached a level of safety margin worth monitoring [7] Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The establishment of zero-carbon parks is expected to catalyze demand for applications in solar-storage-hydrogen systems, aligning with national carbon reduction goals [22][23] - Industrial parks are projected to enhance their renewable energy supply capabilities and improve energy efficiency, leading to increased installations of distributed commercial solar and storage systems [23] - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to play a significant role in achieving carbon neutrality within these parks, facilitating various energy applications and promoting the commercialization of hydrogen technologies [24][25]