天风证券：晨会集萃-20250118

Macroeconomic and Market Strategy - The performance of the equity market is closely tied to the inflection point of corporate earnings, with the market bottom typically leading the earnings inflection by 1-2 quarters. Stocks tend to perform well during Pringle stages 2-4 [2] - The key to breaking out of the bottoming phase lies in the sustainability of M1 recovery, with medium and long-term loans to households being a more critical indicator than those to enterprises. Both indicators tend to rise during the equity market's bottoming phase [2] - Higher-frequency leading indicators focus on funding costs, with interest rate declines stabilizing during Pringle stages 1 and 2, often coinciding with or preceding economic recovery [2] - The Pringle cycle's leading, coincident, and lagging indicators all showed improvement in December, with a rebound in social financing pulse, narrowing M1 year-on-year decline, M2 recovery, and continued growth in medium and long-term household loans [2] Fixed Income and Monetary Policy - Short-term exchange rate uncertainty has increased, with potential for stepwise depreciation in the medium term. The central bank maintains confidence in stabilizing the exchange rate [4] - The central bank has paused treasury purchases to reduce interest rate market volatility but will use other tools to maintain liquidity equilibrium, with seasonal easing expected around the Spring Festival [4] - The central bank emphasizes maintaining a stable liquidity environment to guard against external shocks and stabilize expectations, while continuing to support capital market development [4] Export and Trade Outlook - China's exports grew by 5.9% in 2024 (USD terms), with a record trade surplus of $992.2 billion. The export sector has become more adept at handling trade frictions through strategies like overseas expansion and cost transfer [4] - Despite potential tariff increases, China's export sector is expected to remain resilient in 2025, with PPI deflation narrowing from -2.2% in 2024 to -1.4%, reducing the drag on export growth from price factors [4] Transportation and Infrastructure - Yuexiu Transport has maintained a high ROE of around 15% and a dividend payout ratio of 70% from 2016-2023, with toll revenue growing significantly due to increasing traffic volume [7] - The company's "participation → increase → control" model is expected to continue, with potential for further acquisitions and increased profitability. Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 1.57, 1.63, and 1.67 billion yuan respectively [7] Medical Devices and Healthcare - Sanyou Medical plans to acquire the remaining 48.1846% stake in ShuiMu TianPeng for 415.6757 million yuan, expanding its product line from orthopedic implants to active surgical medical devices [9] - The acquisition is expected to create synergies in product offerings and customer channels, with projected revenues of 462, 695, and 904 million yuan for 2024-2026 [9] Consumer and Tourism Sector - The cultural tourism consumption policy aims to make the tourism industry a pillar industry, with expectations of continued resilience in 2025 following the "weakened cycle, strong resilience" pattern of 2023 and 2024 [10] - The policy focuses on enriching consumption benefits, meeting diverse age group needs, expanding quality product supply, and cultivating new consumption scenarios [10] Food and Beverage Industry - LiGao Foods expects stable revenue growth in 2025 through traditional supermarket channel optimization and new channel expansion, with projected revenues of 4.08, 4.66, and 5.41 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [17] - The company's UHT production line is operating at full capacity, with potential for further capacity release, while new production lines in Foshan are ramping up [17] Technology and Manufacturing - Anjoy Food Group is pursuing an internationalization strategy through "two imports and two exports" - importing management and technology while exporting products and capital, with a focus on Southeast Asia [28] - The company has made significant progress in large B-end channels and plans to continue product upgrades and new product development, particularly in frozen prepared dishes [28]