东海证券：晨会纪要-20250118

Non-Bank Financial Industry - The State Council issued regulations on January 15 to standardize intermediary services for public stock offerings, aiming to improve the quality of listed companies and protect investor rights [5] - In 2024, 436 IPO and refinancing projects were terminated, a significant increase from 286 in 2023, indicating stricter supervision and higher project quality [5] - The new regulations focus on three areas: staged fee collection for underwriting, prohibiting fee increases based on issuance size, and preventing local governments from offering rewards based on listing outcomes [5][6] - The reforms aim to enhance the capital market's efficiency and support high-quality enterprises, particularly those with strong innovation capabilities [6] - The report suggests focusing on mergers and acquisitions, high financial ratios, and ROE improvement as key investment themes in the non-bank financial sector [7] US Inflation and Monetary Policy - US CPI rose 2.9% YoY in December 2024, with core CPI increasing 3.2% YoY, below expectations [10][11] - Energy prices surged 2.6% MoM, driving the overall CPI increase, while core goods prices weakened, with used car prices rising only 1.2% MoM [11][12] - Core services remained stable, with housing costs unchanged and transportation services rising 0.5% MoM [12] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut have shifted to May 2025, with two cuts anticipated within the year [12] - Despite the easing of core inflation, uncertainties remain due to potential policy changes under the Trump administration [13] Domestic Chip Industry and Trade - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an investigation into low-priced mature process chips imported from the US, citing unfair competition due to US government subsidies [16] - The investigation aims to protect domestic chip manufacturers from the impact of subsidized US exports [16] Shanghai's Digital Infrastructure Development - Shanghai plans to build high-performance computing infrastructure, including cloud data centers, open computing platforms, and interconnected computing networks [16] - The initiative aims to provide affordable computing resources to SMEs and establish large-scale commercial computing facilities in the Hongqiao International Central Business District [16] A-share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.28% to 3,236 points, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also gaining 0.41% and 0.66%, respectively [18][19] - The kitchen appliance sector led gains, rising 7.84%, while semiconductors and military equipment sectors underperformed [19][20] - Market sentiment improved, with 90% of sectors and 51% of stocks closing higher [19] Market Data Highlights - The financing balance increased by 17.58 billion yuan to 18.203 trillion yuan [25] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.61%, while the 2-year yield dropped 4 basis points to 4.23% [25] - Gold prices rose 0.89% to $2,746.90 per ounce, while WTI crude oil fell 1.09% to $77.85 per barrel [25]