东吴证券：晨会纪要-20250118

Macro Strategy - The US CPI for December 2024 fell short of expectations, leading to a cooling of the previously crowded strong dollar trade However, the dollar index and US Treasury rates remain elevated, reflecting market concerns over the difficulty of bringing US inflation back to 2% due to Trump's tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration policies [1][7] - The report predicts that US inflation in 2025 will first decline and then rise, with a temporary downward pressure from January to April due to high base effects, shale oil production expectations, and a downward trend in housing inflation This could lead to an overreaction to the decline in inflation during this period and a potential illusion of achieving the inflation target by April, resulting in a reversal of the strong dollar narrative [1][7] - The US core CPI for December 2024 unexpectedly cooled, with a year-on-year increase of 3 24%, below the expected 3 3% This led to a shift in the Fed's rate cut expectations from September to June, causing the dollar index and US Treasury rates to fall, while US stocks and commodities rose [7] - The report highlights that the super core inflation cooled in December, corresponding to a weakening in wage growth Housing inflation is expected to continue its downward trend in Q1 2025, contributing to the overall decline in inflation [7] - The report suggests that Trump's policies, including tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration, will push US inflation higher but with a lag The impact of these policies is not expected to be immediate, with tax cuts likely to take effect in Q3 2025 and immigration policies affecting wage inflation with an 8-month lag [7] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a decline in trading volume compared to the previous day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0 43% to 3227 12 points, down 3 72% from the end of 2024 The ChiNext Index fell 1 82% to 2037 93 points, down 4 84% from the end of 2024 [2][9] - The media sector rose 1 29%, while the banking sector increased by 0 81% and social services gained 0 51% The comprehensive sector fell 3 11%, defense and military dropped 1 80%, and non-ferrous metals declined 1 30% [2][9] - The market turnover was 1211 885 billion yuan, a decrease of 160 109 billion yuan from the previous day Northbound capital turnover was 184 514 billion yuan, while southbound capital saw a net purchase of 12 183 billion yuan [2][9] - The report notes that the market is likely to remain volatile in the short term, with funds rotating between high-dividend large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks However, in the long term, policy shifts and incremental changes are expected to support the market, with room for upward movement after short-term adjustments [3][9] Fixed Income - The Yu Water Convertible Bond (113070 SH) is expected to have an initial listing price range of 115 03 to 127 91 yuan, with a subscription rate of 0 0083% The bond has a good debt floor protection, with a YTM of 1 85% and a credit rating of AAA/AAA [10] - The bond's conversion parity is 93 37 yuan, with a parity premium of 7 10% The bond's terms are standard, with a total share dilution rate of 7 36% [10] - The report recommends actively subscribing to the bond, given its attractive rating and size, and expects a conversion premium of around 30% on the first day of listing [10] Company Analysis - Guangdian Measurement (002967) reported a better-than-expected performance for 2024, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 50%-81% The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be between 3 1 and 3 3 billion yuan, with net profit ranging from 300 to 360 million yuan [11] - The company's strategic shift towards emerging industries and refined management has led to growth in key sectors such as special industries, automotive, integrated circuits, data science, and aviation The company has also reduced losses in weaker businesses like food and environmental testing [11] - The company's management restructuring has brought in a younger and more professional team, focusing on strategic areas such as low-altitude economy, civil aviation, artificial intelligence, and advanced nuclear energy The company has also implemented cost-saving measures and improved profitability [11] - The company completed its equity incentive plan in July 2024, covering 615 core employees and 8 executives, with a profit target of 233 million yuan in 2024, 292 million yuan in 2025, and 352 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a three-year compound growth rate of 23% [11]