快递行业2024年12月数据点评：2024年行业件量增速21%，12月申通31.7%领跑，申通预告24年盈利9.5-10.5亿

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index by more than 5% over the benchmark index in the next 3-6 months [25] Core Views - The express delivery industry demonstrated strong demand resilience in 2024, with a 21% year-on-year growth in parcel volume and a 13% increase in revenue [7] - The industry is transitioning towards an "anti-internal competition" trend, which is expected to benefit the performance elasticity of express companies in the medium to long term [7] - Capital expenditure among major express companies continues to slow, laying the foundation for industry structure optimization [7] Industry Data Summary - In 2024, the industry handled 1,745 billion parcels, a 21% increase year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 1.4 trillion yuan, up 13% [7] - In December 2024, STO Express led in parcel volume growth with a 31.7% year-on-year increase, followed by YTO Express (23.5%), SF Express (19.5%), and Yunda (18.9%) [7] - For the full year of 2024, STO Express also led in cumulative parcel volume growth at 29.8%, followed by Yunda (26.1%), YTO Express (25.3%), and SF Express (11.5%) [7] Company Performance Highlights - STO Express reported a significant increase in profitability, with an estimated 9.5-10.5 billion yuan in net profit for 2024, representing a 178.8%-208.2% year-on-year growth [7] - In December 2024, STO Express also led in revenue growth at 22.1%, followed by YTO Express (16.8%), SF Express (8.6%), and Yunda (7.4%) [7] - SF Express maintained the highest single-ticket revenue at 14.55 yuan in December 2024, despite a 9.1% year-on-year decline [7] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights STO Express as a turnaround company with significant performance elasticity, driven by its volume-first strategy and the industry's anti-internal competition trend [7] - SF Express is recommended for its potential to sustain net profit margin growth, supported by its core time-sensitive delivery demand and operational cost reductions [7] - YTO Express and Yunda are also suggested as key companies to watch due to their market positions and profitability [7] Market Performance - The express delivery industry showed an absolute performance of 10.2% over the past 12 months, with a relative performance of -7.9% compared to the benchmark index [5]