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上市险企12月保费点评:预计储蓄需求依旧旺盛,将带动寿险开门红延续增长,财险保费有望稳中有升
东吴证券·2025-01-18 09:00

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Views - Savings demand remains strong, expected to drive continued growth in life insurance's "Open Red" period [1] - Property insurance premiums are expected to stabilize with slight growth [1] - The life insurance sector is projected to see steady growth in 2025, supported by customer demand for protection and savings products [5] - The property insurance sector shows stable growth, with leading companies like PICC maintaining competitive advantages [5] Life Insurance Sector Analysis - Total premiums for listed life insurance companies increased by 5.1% YoY in 2024 [5] - Ping An Life & Health's new individual business premiums grew by 8.8% annually but declined by 14.8% in Q4 2024 [5] - CPIC Life's individual new business premiums increased by 9.1% annually, with H2 2024 growth at 20.1% [5] - PICC Life's long-term first-year premiums and first-year renewal premiums declined by 28.3% and 47.6% respectively in December 2024 [5] - PICC Health's long-term first-year premiums decreased by 19.2% in December 2024, while first-year renewal premiums surged by 112.0% [5] Property Insurance Sector Analysis - Total premiums for listed property insurance companies increased by 5.4% YoY in 2024 [9] - PICC Property's premiums grew by 4.3% annually, with December 2024 premiums declining by 4.4% [9] - Ping An Property's premiums increased by 6.5% annually, with December 2024 premiums up by 3.4% [9] - CPIC Property's premiums grew by 6.8% annually, with December 2024 premiums up by 4.1% [9] - ZhongAn Online's premiums surged by 13.4% annually, with December 2024 premiums up by 6.2% [9] Company Valuations and Earnings Forecasts - China Ping An's 2024E P/EV is 0.60x, with EPS projected at 5.06 RMB [26] - China Life's 2024E P/EV is 0.82x, with EPS projected at 4.09 RMB [26] - New China Life's 2024E P/EV is 0.56x, with EPS projected at 8.03 RMB [26] - CPIC's 2024E P/EV is 0.53x, with EPS projected at 4.64 RMB [26] Market Trends and Outlook - The insurance sector's valuation remains low, with 2025E P/EV ranging from 0.53x to 0.82x, indicating potential upside [5] - The industry is expected to benefit from economic recovery, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and favorable policies in the real estate sector [5]