有色金属行业跟踪周报：美元现高位筑顶迹象，有色金属普涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a 4.47% increase in the week from January 13 to January 17, outperforming the overall market [15]. - The industrial metals segment saw a price surge due to improved market risk appetite following lower-than-expected U.S. core CPI data [1][29]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to maintain a strong short-term trend as the dollar index shows signs of peaking [49][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.31%, with the non-ferrous metals sector ranking 9th among 31 sectors, up 4.47% [15]. - Among sub-sectors, energy metals increased by 7.28%, small metals by 4.93%, industrial metals by 3.96%, new metal materials by 3.85%, and precious metals by 3.38% [15]. 2. Fundamental Review 2.1 Industrial Metals - Copper: Prices increased with LME copper at $9,182/ton (up 1.19%) and SHFE copper at ¥76,540/ton (up 1.69%). Supply remains tight with TC prices at $4.7/ton, while demand is expected to decrease as the Chinese New Year approaches [2][31]. - Aluminum: LME aluminum rose to $2,681/ton (up 4.36%) and SHFE aluminum to ¥20,470/ton (up 1.61%). The EU's plan to restrict Russian aluminum imports has raised concerns about supply shortages [3][38]. - Zinc: Prices increased with LME zinc at $2,945/ton (up 2.86%) and SHFE zinc at ¥24,225/ton (up 0.33%). Zinc inventories decreased, supporting price increases [41]. - Tin: LME tin fell to $29,850/ton (down 0.43%) and SHFE tin to ¥249,900/ton (down 0.94%). Supply remains tight due to low imports from Myanmar [43][47]. 2.2 Precious Metals - Gold prices rose with COMEX gold at $2,740/oz (up 0.83%) and SHFE gold at ¥640.68/g (up 0.82%). The market is adjusting to lower inflation expectations, and the dollar index is showing signs of peaking [49][50]. 3. News Highlights - The report notes significant macroeconomic data from the U.S. that has eased pessimism regarding interest rate cuts, with expectations for the Fed to cut rates 3-4 times in 2025 [29][50].