华致酒行：公司事件点评报告：业绩不及预期，改革调整修炼内功

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company's 2024 net profit is expected to be between 0.38-0.52 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 78.11%-83.82%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 0.21-0.28 billion yuan, down 84.14%-88.28% year-on-year, indicating significant profit pressure [2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to show a net loss of 1.30 to 1.16 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 0.04 billion yuan in the same period last year. This loss is attributed to overall weak industry demand and a decline in gross margin due to price reductions of premium liquor [2]. - The company is undergoing internal reforms and adjustments, focusing on inventory reduction and price stabilization through partnerships with regional liquor brands and various sales initiatives [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company anticipates short-term growth driven by an increase in the proportion of premium liquor and scale effects. Long-term growth is expected from the maturation of its own brand operations and successful store transformations. The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.12, 0.30, and 0.54 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 160, 63, and 35 times [4]. Financial Data - The current stock price is 18.65 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 7.8 billion yuan and a total share count of 417 million. The 52-week price range is between 11.14 and 22.05 yuan [6]. - The projected main revenue for 2024 is 8.327 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 17.7% from 2023. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 0.48 billion yuan, down 79.4% year-on-year [9]. Key Financial Metrics - The report outlines key financial metrics, including a projected gross margin of 11.0% for 2024 and a return on equity (ROE) of 1.2% [10]. - The company's asset-liability ratio is expected to be 52.4% in 2024, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [10]. Market Performance - The report notes that the company's stock has underperformed compared to the market index, with a significant decline in recent performance [7].