Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is currently experiencing low valuations, with pessimistic expectations likely already reflected in the market. The latest pig price is 15.7 yuan/kg, with an average slaughter weight dropping to around 123 kg. The price of 15 kg piglets has risen to 580 yuan, driven by a rush to replenish stocks. Leading companies like Muyuan and Wens have seen their stock prices approach 24-year lows, and futures contracts for 2025 are below 14,000 yuan/ton, indicating potential widespread losses under current industry costs. However, short-term support for pig prices may arise from frozen product inventory and replenishment efforts, suggesting a possible recovery in market sentiment [4][5][19]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Pig Farming - The latest pig price is 15.7 yuan/kg, with average slaughter weight at 123 kg. The price of piglets has increased to 580 yuan, indicating a market response to replenishment needs. Leading companies' stock prices are near historical lows, and futures contracts for 2025 are below 14,000 yuan/ton, suggesting potential losses. Short-term support may come from inventory and replenishment efforts, indicating a possible recovery in market sentiment [4][19]. 1.2 Poultry - The poultry sector is gradually recovering from a period of halted breeding, with average chick prices at 2.8 yuan per chick and broiler prices at 7.1 yuan/kg. The profitability of parent stock is improving, highlighting quality issues in the industry. The market is focusing on two main lines: high-return imported breeding stock and comprehensive industry leaders like Yisheng and Shengnong [6][20]. 1.3 Feed - The feed sector is witnessing a recovery in fish prices alongside a decline in feed prices, with expectations for a rebound in aquaculture demand in 2025. The leading companies are entering a phase of stable cash flow, having completed capacity expansions. The focus is on companies like Haida Group, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flow and overseas growth [7][21][22]. 1.4 Pet Industry - The pet industry is experiencing continuous growth, with December sales reaching 750 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Leading brands like Maifudi and Friega are dominating the market. The phenomenon of "Cat Tax" is gaining attention, allowing brands to enhance product visibility through social media [9][25][26][27]. 2. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3812 points, up 2.14% from the previous week. The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose 3.89%, with the pet economy sector showing the best performance at 11.72% [28].
农林牧渔行业周报：养殖板块估值低位，宠物赛道持续增长
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-01-19 01:13