宏观点评：大盘小幅收涨，科技板块活跃

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18% to 3241.82 points, down 3.28% from the end of 2024[3] - The ChiNext Index increased by 0.78% to 2067.27 points, down 3.47% from the end of 2024[3] - The total market turnover was 11510.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 1419.05 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] Sector Performance - The technology sector led the gains, with electronics up 1.77%, basic chemicals up 1.31%, and defense industry up 1.10%[3] - Conversely, the retail sector fell by 1.78%, textiles by 1.11%, and media by 0.91%[3] - The semiconductor sector saw positive movement due to support for domestic semiconductor enterprises amid U.S. export restrictions[3] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5.0%, with Q4 growth at 5.4%[10] - Retail sales for 2024 are expected to grow by 3.5%, with December retail sales increasing by 3.7%[10] - Real estate investment is forecasted to decline by 10.5%, with new housing sales down by 12.9%[10] Investment Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautious, with a potential shift in investment style as funds rotate between high-dividend large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks[2] - The upcoming inauguration of President Trump on January 20 is anticipated to influence market volatility[2] - Long-term policy direction is becoming clearer, with expectations of support for market sentiment despite short-term fluctuations[2] Risks - Potential risks include changes in market style, insufficient capital inflow, and policy implementation falling short of expectations[2]