不宜过度悲观煤价，逢低布局待兑现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The coal supply is expected to stabilize with a projected production of 4.76 billion tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while imports are anticipated to reach 540 million tons, up 10.9% year-on-year [11][13] - The report emphasizes that the coal price floor has been established, with market prices expected to remain above 800 CNY/ton, and long-term contracts around 700 CNY/ton, indicating a resilient demand for coal [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of January 17, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 760 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][31] - The international thermal coal price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) remains stable at 89.8 USD/ton [3][31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 97%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization for coking coal is 87.55%, down 1.1 percentage points [4][11] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 30.90 thousand tons/day, a decline of 7.17% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a reduction of 14.00 thousand tons/day, down 6.59% [4][11] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - As of January 16, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 52.20 thousand tons, a 1.50% decline week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 8.50 thousand tons, down 0.09% [4][11] 4. Company Performance - The report highlights that major coal companies are showing confidence through share buybacks and increased holdings, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [11][12] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividend yields, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and others for potential investment opportunities [12][13]